2011 Tropical weather update

Emily no longer poses threat to Dominica

Emily set its sights on the Dominican Republic.

Tropical storm Emily moved past Dominica in the early hours of Tuesday morning dropping several inches of rain on the island. Otherwise there was little or no damage from its 40 mile winds as it made its way across the island.

The earlier warning has been discontinued but it remains in effect for Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm watches are also in effect for Haiti, the U. S Virgin Islands, Antigua, and St Kitts.

Emily is traveling Westwards at about 17 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph. On its current track it will travel across the Caribbean Sea today and approach the Dominican Republic later tonight and into tomorrow.

Some gradual strengthening is expected before Emily interacts with land later today.

Update: Tropical storm warning in effect for Dominica

At 8 P.M on Monday August 1, 2011 the National Hurricane Center in Miami announced the formation of Tropical Storm Emily some 50 miles West South West of Dominica.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Dominica, Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico with watches for Antigua, the US Virgin Islands, St Kitts, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Winds are currently at 40 mph with further strengthening expected with the storm traveling at about 17 mph.

Update: System producing winds to near tropical storm strength

Showers and thunderstorms extend from the Lesser Antilles eastward for a few hundred miles in association with a vigorous tropical wave. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the disturbance.

Although satellite imagery indicates this system has not become any better organized since this morning. The wave is producing winds to near tropical storm force and environmental conditions remain conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form later tonight or Tuesday.

This system has a high chance 80 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

If the system becomes a tropical cyclone tonight or tomorrow tropical storm warnings would be issued for portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands on very short notice.

Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this system will bring locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Update: Heavy rainfall and gusty winds expected in Eastern Caribbean

A vast area of disturbed weather continues to affect Dominica and the rest of the Eastern Caribbean.

At 8 p.m on Sunday the National Weather service issued the following update:

“An elongated area of low pressure extending from the Lesser Antilles eastward several hundred miles into the tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.

Conditions are expected to remain favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form and this system has a high chance 90 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.

If the system becomes a tropical cyclone tonight or Monday tropical storm watches or warnings would be issued for portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands on very short notice and interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.

A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Monday morning. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation this system will bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Monday.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.”

System has 100% chance of becoming cyclone threaten Windwards

Residents of Dominica, St Lucia, Martinique, Guadelopue and the rest of the Eastern Caribbean awoke to news this morning of the very high likelihood of a tropical cyclone affecting the islands beginning early Monday afternoon.

According to forecasters from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, hurricane watches or warnings are “likely to be issued for portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands.”

The full text of the report reads as follows.

“Satellite images and NOAA buoy data indicate that the large and elongated low pressure system centered about 650 miles east of the northern Windward Islands continues to become better organized and it could develop into a tropical depression at any time.

This system has a high chance near 100 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.

If the low becomes a tropical cyclone later today tropical storm watches or warnings would likely be required for portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands.

Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance later this afternoon.”

TheDominican.net News desk will continue to bring you continuous updates on the pending storm.