Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Dominica volcano poses ‘tsunami’threat to Guadeloupe

By Thomson Fontaine

morne aux diables
A flank of the Morne Aux Diables volcano could collapse at anytime creating tsunami waves up to 10 feet high.

The expected collapse of the morne Aux Diables volcano in the North of Dominica could trigger a tsunami that could threathen and possibly kill thousands of inhabitants in the neigboring island of Guadeloupe.

This is the findings of Dr Richard Teeuw and a team of geologists from the University of Portsmouth and published in the newsletter of the American Geophysical Union (Eos, 90 (10), 81-82).

The geologists who spent several weeks in Dominica, have discovered that a flank of the 2,826 feet/848 meters Morne aux Diables ("Devils' Peak") volcano shows signs of collapse and if so, a million-ton chunk of rock could crash into the sea, producing tsunami waves up to almost 3 metres (10 feet) high.

Such a rock fall could also weaken three million tones of rock upslope, potentially resulting in much larger landslides and waves of up to five metres. According to Dr Teeuw : “It’s not a case of if this landslide and tsunami will happen, but when.

The trigger will probably be a major earthquake, occurring after the heavy rain and coastal erosion of the hurricane season. It could happen in a hundred years or it could happen next week.”

Under this scenario, it will take only a few minutes for the waves to reach the coastal and heavily populated region of Guadeloupe, which is just 31 miles (50 kilometers) away. In that event, the population will have very little warning and the result could be catastrophic.

He noted that “Guadeloupe is a densely populated island with popular tourist beaches, many of which are wide with low angle gradients, which leads to ‘tsunami run-up’ and increased wave heights. In places, there is no protection from coral reef which otherwise might absorb some of the tsunami wave energy.”

Dr Teeuw and his team used geomorphological surveys and evidence from Google Earth3-D imaging, which showed that one flank of the volcano is in danger of collapse. They observed visible tension cracks at the flank, which convinced them that they were looking at a serious landslide and tsunami hazard.

The vulnerable area of rock was left exposed several thousand years ago when the flank of the volcano collapsed into the sea. Since the original collapse, coastal erosion has undercut cliffs along the over-steepened margin of the volcano, leaving the remaining flank of the volcano unstable.

Dr Teeuw said: “The earthquake associated with the ancient flank-collapse of Morne aux Diables volcano was probably much larger than any experienced around Dominica in historical times. If so, that has serious implications, raising the possibility of rare, but catastrophic, tsunami waves in the Caribbean region.”

No eruptions are known from Morne aux Diables in historical time, although the volcano has a youthful appearance and activity at flank domes likely continued into the late-Pleistocene and Holocene periods.

Severe earthquake swarms in 1841 and 1893 were associated with either Morne aux Diables or Morne Diablotins to the south.

Increasing the risk of the dome collapse is the fact that the area around Dominica is regularly exposed to hurricanes and occasional severe seismic activity. The most recent earthquake in the area was on April 13, 2009, registering 3.6 with the epicenter located about 3 miles from the volcano.

Dr Teeuw and his team will return to Dominica in the summer of 2009, part-funded by the Royal Geographical Society, for further geomorphological surveys, to better understand the probable size of the various landslide zones on the flanks of Morne aux Diables.

A further survey is planned for 2010, when the seafloor along the margin of the volcano will be examined, allowing better estimates of the likely tsunami hazard. Examining the age of the sediment on the seabed will also help to determine when past coastal landslides occurred.

Dr Teeuw findings were recently relayed to emergency planners, disaster managers and the people of Guadeloupe and Dominica to help them reduce their vulnerability to this newly discovered risk.

Dominica with nine active volcanos is known to have the highest concentrations of potentially active volcanoes in the world. Frequent seismic swarms and vigorous and widespread geothermal activity today characterize the island.

In fact, it is the most worrying of all the Caribbean volcanic areas and there is a general feeling that it (like Montserrat pre-1995) is long overdue for an eruption. Scientists are predicting that there will be at least one major eruption within the next 100 years. E-mail to a friend

The history and pictures of Dominica volcanos - Morne Aux Diables

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Comments:
God help us!!
 
If Guadeloupe interests were not at stake we would have heard NOTHING from our own government! Well now that Morne Aux Diables and the potential threat is looming over Skerrit's multimillion dollar($400,000 my butt!)mansion, I hope that the poor and other inhabitants of Vieille Case, Penville, Capuchin and will be informed and advised and steps taken to protect them...
 
HAVE DOMINICANS FOR GET THAT THE EARTH IS THE LORDS AND THE FULLNESS THERE OFF. WHY WORRY GOD KNOWS HOW TO PROTECT HIS CHILDREN. DOMINICANS WERE MAD THAT PASTOR BILL DANIEL ASK FOR A DAY OF PRAY. WHO DO WE TURN TO KNOW.
 
WE HAVE TO BE MINFULL THAT THE END TIMES IS FASTLY APPROACHING.WHY DONT WE STOP PLAYING PETTY POLITCS AND TURN TO OUR MAKER WHO IS OUR SOURCE.IS THE PRIME MINISTER YOUR SOURCE DOMINICANS?REMEMBER THAT GOD IS OUR REFUGE IN TIMES OF TROUBLE THATS THE WORD, NOT THE PM.
 
God is our refuge and strength but we have turned away from him and want answers in the prime minister who doesnt no any thing and who needs answers the end of time is approaching and the bile stated that those things would happen even islands would disappear and now this is happening now is the time to give our lives to god and rest assure if any thing happens we will be with our maker in haven God is telling us something dominicans and we are not listening the end of time is here
 
fast and pray ppl
 
One dimensional political religious fanatics spinning on a possible threat to the people of the North. God will only help those who help themseleves. All that religious spin helps no one. These fanatics do not stay home and ask God to pay their bills or plant their bananas or sweep their yard. Government must be PROactive and take steps to address/minimise the possibility of a disaster.
 
what can the people in the north do to prorect themselves if such a disaster happens? will the volcanoe give any signs that its goin to erupt so that the northern district can evacuate?
people of the north needs to be educated on this possibility
 
This is really amazing. I hope for the sake of everyone that God preserves the mountain.
 
Please note that the prediction is not for a volcano but rather for a 'major landslide'. The imagery showed some severe tension (crack) on the rock indicating that at any time it will detach from the mountain.

This could be brought on by excessive rains combined with an earthquake. So while a volcano gives several days notice of a pending eruption this will come completely by surprise hence the reason why it is potentially so dangerous.

The collapse is possible because the flank is made up of material from more recent volcanic activity compared to the base of the mountain. Think of the flank as putting a lump of paste on a wall. With moisture and some shaking it will eventually come unstuck. In this case the 'paste' is a million ton rock.
 
With faith in God we can face anything. Right now we probably have a greater and more definite threat from regular hurricanes than some volcano/landslide. As sensational as this may be, we might never see anything like that in our lifetime while for sure we'll see two or three more very bad hurricanes if we live to three score and ten.
Having said that, we now know that everything comes with a price - including all those rivers, valleys, hills and mountains that makes our isle so special. We accept whatever is in God's will; no man can change that. Being forewarned however, we will make the necessary preparation. Our job in the meantime is to live lives that honor God, care for our families, love our fellowman and do all in our power to make our country the very best that it can be. Pas quittey yo por Dominique por nou! Respectfully, Dr. Sam
 
If I didn't known better, after hearing the BBC's report on the "Possible Collapse of Morne Au Diables", I too would have been busy asking for forgiveness for all my sins, maybe preaching a dooms day message or even find a way of including or even blaming politicians for bringing this calamity onto us. You see I live in Portsmouth right a the feet of this so called "Doomed" volcano.

About a month ago I received the the March edition of EOS, a scientific journal published by the American Geophysical Union. In this edition was an article which in my opinion described a landslide in the making. According to the article, if this chunk of material which overhung the Guadeloupe channel were to be dislodged by an earthquake, a tsunami could be generated that would endanger residents along the southern beaches of Guadeloupe and the Saints. Nowhere in this article did I see Any reference to the volcano splitting and tsunamis devastating Portsmouth, Penville disappearing or even God coming.

I immediately forwarded the relevant article to the Dominica Disaster preparedness office who immediately replied thanking me for the article and informing me that they were already aware of the findings bud did not know that the article was already published. They also informed me that the professor who conducted the studies was returning to Dominica in July together with representatives of the SRU to conduct detailed studies of the area so that they could better understand what hazards, if any, this landslide posed to Dominica and Guadeloupe.

I believe that it was irresponsible journalism on the part of BBC to air a sensationalized version of this story without input from either Dominica's Disaster Preparedness office, SRU or Guadeloupe Volcano Observatory. Instead they chose to speak to the EX disaster preparedness coordinator. They reported and Volcano Collapse which news media in Dominica picked up on and ran full speed ahead with.

I have taken the liberty to place a copy of the complete article on my website. Please click on the following link to take a read, look at the attached photograph and decide for yourself if this subject deserves all the airplay it is getting, if Morne Au Diables volcano is splitting or if God is coming.

http://dominicapsn.freeyellow.com/tsunami_slide.php
 
CHANGE THE NAMES OF DOMINICA MOUNTAINS, Morne aux Diables or Morne Diablotins
MORNE AUX DIABLES(DEVILS PEAK) AND MORNE DIABLOTINS(DEVILS MOUNTAIN) COME ON LOOK AT THE LOGIC ONE IN THE NORTH(HEAD) AND ONE IN THE SOUTH(TAIL) DOMINICA REALLY NEEDS TO CHANGES THESE NAMES SO IN CLOSING YOU HAVE THE DEVIL IN THE HEAD AND THE DEVIL IN THE TAIL, SO IS THIS ISLAND CONTROLLED BY THE DEVIL, I HOPE NOT, I LOVE MY COUNTRY, PLEASE CONSIDER NAME CHANGE
 
Will the changing the names of the mountains change anything? It surely won't stop you from being as dumb as you are. Is Morne Diablotin in the south of Dominica? Does Morne Diablotin mean Devil's Mountain? I need to know the person who started teaching monkeys how to use computers.
 

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